TSR warns of 'enhanced' late season hurricane activity
The 2022 hurricane season will be ‘slightly less active’ than the two previous years, but may carry an increased risk in the latter part of the storm season, forecaster says
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has maintained its above-normal hurricane season forecast and warned of the possibility of “enhanced” late season activity.
The firm has continued to predict 18 named storms, with eight hurricanes and four major (category three and above) hurricanes.
While uncertainties still remain, TSR said the 2022 hurricane season will be “slightly less active” than the two previous years but may carry an “increased risk” in the latter part of the storm season.
Ten years on from the late-season Hurricane Sandy, some forecasts have predicted a slight strengthening of the existing La Niña conditions through the autumn, which, if verified, would increase the chance of enhanced late season activity, TSR said.
“We consider the more likely scenario is for tropical north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be slightly warmer than normal by August-September 2022 and for weak La Niña conditions to persist through late summer and into the autumn,” Nick Wood, commercial director at EuroTempest, which runs TSR, said.
“This is likely to contribute to reduced trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Both these environmental factors are expected to enhance north Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022.”
In April EuroTempest announced it had signed a licence agreement to take over the day-to-day running of TSR from UCL.
Under EuroTempest, TSR will continue to provide free and paid-for storm forecasting services, as well as free seasonal alerts and updates.
It also provides overlay information on insured exposures and calculates likely damage scenarios for re/insurers.