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Risk Foresight: Syria – the regional impact of a proxy war

The opposing sides in Syria’s civil war are unlikely to arrive at a negotiated settlement without the approval of the rival external players on which they are dependent for financing and weapons: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. However, Saudi Arabia and Iran, in our assessment, see no possible outcome in which their diverging interests in Syria can be reconciled. Therefore, a protracted, indecisive conflict is the most likely scenario in the one-year outlook, irrespective of how long Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, clings to power.

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